{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "builder_plan": {
    "scenario": "Start with one repeated product task that has a measurable failure or cost.",
    "change": "Read the methods and identify one change you can isolate in that workflow.",
    "baseline": "Your current implementation on the same held-out tasks.",
    "steps": [
      "Locate the paper's implementation and check its license, model support, data needs, and hardware requirements. Stop here if you cannot obtain the required artifacts.",
      "Save a small set of representative product tasks and expected outcomes. Keep evaluation tasks out of any training or tuning, and choose quality and cost limits before running.",
      "Run the baseline and the proposed change on identical inputs. Keep other settings fixed and repeat paired runs to expose variation.",
      "Save per-task outputs, failures, timings, and all usage costs. Review regressions before expanding the test."
    ],
    "measure": "Successful outcomes, response time, human rework, and total cost per successful task.",
    "decision": "Keep the change only if it meets your preselected quality and latency limits and improves the metric you care about after setup and operating costs. Otherwise retain the baseline. This is an exploration plan, not a validated recommendation."
  },
  "builder_review": null,
  "arxiv_id": "2609.31315",
  "title": "LUCID: Learning Under Confounding for Inference and Discovery in Time Series",
  "summary": "LUCID wraps an existing time-series causal discovery engine, replacing raw-input discovery with a Marčenko–Pastur spectral routing step that estimates the confounding regime, attenuates factor-driven variation, and calibrates edge selection against a data-driven null. Cost is modest: a CPU-feasible preprocessing layer plus hyperparameter and null-calibration overhead, with no large models or GPU requirement. It can fail when the spectral regime is misclassified, when real confounding departs from the factor model assumed by the attenuation step, and because all reported gains are on synthetic benchmarks, so transfer to production data is unverified.",
  "rationale": "The method is computationally cheap and open-source, but its benefits are demonstrated only on synthetic benchmarks, so it merits a workload-specific pilot rather than direct adoption.",
  "technique": "Regime-adaptive deconfounding layer for time-series causal discovery",
  "family": "outro",
  "recommendation": "testar",
  "published": "2026-09-25",
  "as_of": "2026-10-18",
  "editorial_status": "indexed",
  "source_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31315",
  "independent_implementations": 0,
  "total_implementations": 0,
  "stars": 0,
  "citations": 0,
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_id": "claim-01",
      "statement": "LUCID wraps an existing time-series causal discovery engine, replacing raw-input discovery with a Marčenko–Pastur spectral routing step that estimates the confounding regime, attenuates factor-driven variation, and calibrates edge selection against a data-driven null. Cost is modest: a CPU-feasible preprocessing layer plus hyperparameter and null-calibration overhead, with no large models or GPU requirement. It can fail when the spectral regime is misclassified, when real confounding departs from the factor model assumed by the attenuation step, and because all reported gains are on synthetic benchmarks, so transfer to production data is unverified.",
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      "source_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31315",
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    },
    {
      "claim_id": "claim-02",
      "statement": "Best family-weighted directed, lag-resolved graph F1 of 0.60 on a synthetic out-of-distribution benchmark, +0.19 absolute (about 46% relative) over the strongest baseline, across three wrapped discovery engines.",
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      "source_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31315",
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    }
  ],
  "exposure_map": [
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    {
      "dimension": "latency",
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    },
    {
      "dimension": "operations",
      "basis": "not_evaluated",
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      "source_page": null,
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    },
    {
      "dimension": "compatibility",
      "basis": "not_evaluated",
      "finding": "",
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      "source_page": null,
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    },
    {
      "dimension": "security",
      "basis": "not_evaluated",
      "finding": "",
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      "source_page": null,
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    },
    {
      "dimension": "data_and_training",
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      "source_page": null,
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    },
    {
      "dimension": "reproducibility",
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      "source_page": null,
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    }
  ],
  "risks": [],
  "minimum_test": [],
  "open_questions": [],
  "independent_tests": [],
  "lab_reproductions": [],
  "report_available": false,
  "validation_tier": "unknown",
  "evidence_tier": "unknown",
  "infrastructure_basis": "unknown",
  "equations": [],
  "equations_status": "not_fetched",
  "core_kind": "",
  "equations_fetched_at": "",
  "equations_source_url": "",
  "equations_source_sha256": "",
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}